Wednesday, July 2, 2008

What's The Latest?

From CNN:

With just over four months remaining until voters weigh in at the polls, the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey out Tuesday indicates that among registered voters nationwide, Sen. Barack Obama Obama holds a 5-point advantage over Arizona senator John McCain, 50 percent to 45 percent.

That represents little change from a similar poll one month ago, when the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee held a 46 to 43 percent edge over McCain.

In a four-way matchup that includes independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, Obama's lead over McCain dwindles to 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent. (Nader registers 6 percent, and Barr gets 3 percent.)

But it remains unclear just how much effect Nader and Barr will have on the election, as summertime surveys often overstate the eventual Election Day showing of third-party candidates.

"A useful rule of thumb is that third-party candidates in November get no more than half the support polls show them having in June or July," CNN polling director Keating Holland said.


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