Friday, November 7, 2008

Dead Red State Blues.



From CNN:

A new report from American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate concludes that voter turnout in Tuesday’s election was the same in percentage terms as it was four years ago — or at most has risen by less than 1 percent.

The report released Thursday estimates that between 126.5 and 128.5 million Americans cast ballots in the presidential election earlier this week. Those figures represent 60.7 percent or, at most, 61.7 percent of those eligible to vote in the country.

“A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout,” the report said. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout declined by 1.3 percentage points to 28.7 percent, while Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 points from 28.7 percent in 2004 to 31.3 percent in 2008:

     Of the 47 states and the District of Columbia included in this report, turnout was up in only 22 

states and D.C.  (Because of the extensive uncounted no excuse absentee balloting in Alaska and 

California and all-mail voting in Oregon and most of the state of Washington, those states are not 

included in this report.)   

     “Many people were fooled (including this student of politics although less so than many others) by 

this year’s increase in registration (more than 10 million added to the rolls), citizens’ willingness to

stand for hours even in inclement weather to vote early, the likely rise in youth and African 

American voting, and the extensive grassroots organizing network of the Obama campaign into 

believing that turnout would be substantially higher than in 2004,” said Curtis Gans, CSAE’s 

director. “But we failed to realize that the registration increase was driven by Democratic and 

independent registration and that the long lines at the polls were mostly populated by Democrats.” 


Some experts also note that national turnout trends may mask higher turnout in swing states with more intensive attempts by both campaigns to get their supporters to the polls. Several large states, including California and New York, had no statewide races and virtually no advertising or get-out-the-vote efforts by either presidential campaign.


JackRabbit Café's unscientific research suggests the "old" in "Grand Old Party" may help explain Tuesday's results. Many formerly reliable GOP voters are now dead. 


In the end, Sarah Palin was no Joe Camel.      

allvoices

No comments: